Development and validation of a prognostic model based on immune variables to early predict severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection

Background The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has prevailed globally since November 2021. The extremely high transmissibility and occult manifestations were notable, but the severity and mortality associated with the Omicron variant and subvariants cannot be ignored, especially for immunocompromised populations. However, no prognostic model for specially predicting the severity of the Omicron variant infection is available yet. In this study, we aim to develop and validate a prognostic model based on immune variables to early recognize potentially severe cases of Omicron variant-infected patients. Methods This was a single-center prognostic study involving patients with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection. Eligible patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts. Variables were collected immediately after admission. Candidate variables were selected by three variable-selecting methods and were used to construct Cox regression as the prognostic model. Discrimination, calibration, and net benefit of the model were evaluated in both training and validation cohorts. Results Six hundred eighty-nine of the involved 2,645 patients were eligible, consisting of 630 non-ICU cases and 59 ICU cases. Six predictors were finally selected to establish the prognostic model: age, neutrophils, lymphocytes, procalcitonin, IL-2, and IL-10. For discrimination, concordance indexes in the training and validation cohorts were 0.822 (95% CI: 0.748-0.896) and 0.853 (95% CI: 0.769-0.942). For calibration, predicted probabilities and observed proportions displayed high agreements. In the 21-day decision curve analysis, the threshold probability ranges with positive net benefit were 0~1 and nearly 0~0.75 in the training and validation cohorts, correspondingly. Conclusions This model had satisfactory high discrimination, calibration, and net benefit. It can be used to early recognize potentially severe cases of Omicron variant-infected patients so that they can be treated timely and rationally to reduce the severity and mortality of Omicron variant infection.

High-throughput screening of mutations affecting SARS-CoV-2 spike functions.

The spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2, which is undergoing rapid evolution, plays crucial roles in viral immune escape, infectivity, and transmissibility. To gain clinical insight, Dadonaite et al. developed a novel deep mutational scanning (DMS) platform for mapping the effects of S protein mutations on immune evasion and viral infectivity.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB subvariants exhibit enhanced fusogenicity and substantial immune evasion in elderly population, but high sensitivity to pan-coronavirus fusion inhibitors.

Numerous emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariants have shown significant immune evasion capacity and caused a large number of infections, as well as vaccine-breakthrough infections, especially in elderly populations. Recently emerged Omicron XBB was derived from the BA.2 lineage, but bears a distinct mutant profile in its spike (S) protein. In this study, we found that Omicron XBB S protein drove more efficient membrane-fusion kinetics on human lung-derived cells (Calu-3). Considering the high susceptibility of the elderly to the current Omicron pandemic, we performed a comprehensive neutralization assessment of elderly convalescent or vaccine sera against XBB infection. We found that the sera from elderly convalescent patients who experienced with BA.2 infection or breakthrough infection potently inhibited BA.2 infection, but showed significantly reduced efficacy against XBB. Moreover, recently emerged XBB.1.5 subvariant also showed more significant resistance to the convalescent sera of BA.2- or BA.5-infected elderly. On the other hand, we found that the pan-CoV fusion inhibitors EK1 and EK1C4 can potently block either XBB-S- or XBB.1.5-S-mediated fusion process and viral entry. Moreover, EK1 fusion inhibitor showed potent synergism when combined with convalescent sera of BA.2- or BA.5-infected patients against XBB and XBB.1.5 infection, further indicating that EK1-based pan-CoV fusion inhibitors are promising candidates for development as clinical antiviral agents to combat the Omicron XBB subvariants.

Development and validation of a prognostic model based on immune variables to early predict severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection.

Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has prevailed globally since November 2021. The extremely high transmissibility and occult manifestations were notable, but the severity and mortality associated with the Omicron variant and subvariants cannot be ignored, especially for immunocompromised populations. However, no prognostic model for specially predicting the severity of the Omicron variant infection is available yet. In this study, we aim to develop and validate a prognostic model based on immune variables to early recognize potentially severe cases of Omicron variant-infected patients. Methods: This was a single-center prognostic study involving patients with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection. Eligible patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts. Variables were collected immediately after admission. Candidate variables were selected by three variable-selecting methods and were used to construct Cox regression as the prognostic model. Discrimination, calibration, and net benefit of the model were evaluated in both training and validation cohorts. Results: Six hundred eighty-nine of the involved 2,645 patients were eligible, consisting of 630 non-ICU cases and 59 ICU cases. Six predictors were finally selected to establish the prognostic model: age, neutrophils, lymphocytes, procalcitonin, IL-2, and IL-10. For discrimination, concordance indexes in the training and validation cohorts were 0.822 (95% CI: 0.748-0.896) and 0.853 (95% CI: 0.769-0.942). For calibration, predicted probabilities and observed proportions displayed high agreements. In the 21-day decision curve analysis, the threshold probability ranges with positive net benefit were 0~1 and nearly 0~0.75 in the training and validation cohorts, correspondingly. Conclusions: This model had satisfactory high discrimination, calibration, and net benefit. It can be used to early recognize potentially severe cases of Omicron variant-infected patients so that they can be treated timely and rationally to reduce the severity and mortality of Omicron variant infection.

Supercoiling Structure-Based Design of a Trimeric Coiled-Coil Peptide with High Potency against HIV-1 and Human ß-Coronavirus Infection.

Hexameric structure formation through packing of three C-terminal helices and an N-terminal trimeric coiled-coil core has been proposed as a general mechanism of class I enveloped virus entry. In this process, the C-terminal helical repeat (HR2) region of viral membrane fusion proteins becomes transiently exposed and accessible to N-terminal helical repeat (HR1) trimer-based fusion inhibitors. Herein, we describe a mimetic of the HIV-1 gp41 HR1 trimer, N3G, as a promising therapeutic against HIV-1 infection. Surprisingly, we found that in addition to protection against HIV-1 infection, N3G was also highly effective in inhibiting infection of human ß-coronaviruses, including MERS-CoV, HCoV-OC43, and SARS-CoV-2, possibly by binding the HR2 region in the spike protein of ß-coronaviruses to block their hexameric structure formation. These studies demonstrate the potential utility of anti-HIV-1 HR1 peptides in inhibiting human ß-coronavirus infection. Moreover, this strategy could be extended to the design of broad-spectrum antivirals based on the supercoiling structure of peptides.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants exhibit distinct fusogenicity, but similar sensitivity, to pan-CoV fusion inhibitors.

Continuous emergence of the Omicron variant, along with its subvariants, has caused an increasing number of infections, reinfections, and vaccine-breakthrough infections, seriously threatening human health. Recently, several new Omicron subvariants, such as BA.5, BA.2.75, BA.4.6, and BF.7, bearing distinct mutation profiles in their spike (S) proteins, have significantly increased their capacity to evade vaccine-induced immunity and have shown enhanced infectivity and transmissibility, quickly becoming dominant sublineages. In this study, we found the S proteins of these Omicron subvariants to have 2- to 4-fold more efficient membrane fusion kinetics than that of the original Omicron variant (BA.1), indicating that these novel Omicron subvariants might possess increased pathogenicity. We also identified that peptide-based pan-CoV fusion inhibitors, EK1 and EK1C4, showed equal efficacy against membrane fusion mediated by S proteins of the noted Omicron subvariants and infection by their pseudoviruses. Additionally, either immune sera induced by wild-type (WT) SARS-CoV-2 RBD-based vaccine or BA.2 convalescent sera showed potent synergism with EK1 against both WT SARS-CoV-2 and various Omicron subvariants, further suggesting that EK1-based fusion inhibitors are promising candidates for development as clinical antiviral agents against the currently circulating Omicron subvariants.

Pan-coronavirus fusion inhibitors to combat COVID-19 and other emerging coronavirus infectious diseases.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of the currently ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, has posed a serious threat to global public health. Recently, several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) have emerged and caused numerous cases of reinfection in convalescent COVID-19 patients, as well as breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals. This calls for the development of broad-spectrum antiviral drugs to combat SARS-CoV-2 and its VOCs. Pan-coronavirus fusion inhibitors, targeting the conserved heptad repeat 1 (HR1) in spike protein S2 subunit, can broadly and potently inhibit infection of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, as well as other human coronaviruses. In this review, we summarized the most recent development of pan-coronavirus fusion inhibitors, such as EK1, EK1C4, and EKL1C, and highlighted their potential application in combating current COVID-19 infection and reinfection, as well as future emerging coronavirus infectious diseases.

Antigenic mapping reveals sites of vulnerability on α-HCoV spike protein.

Understanding the antigenic signatures of all human coronaviruses (HCoVs) Spike (S) proteins is imperative for pan-HCoV epitopes identification and broadly effective vaccine development. To depict the currently elusive antigenic signatures of α-HCoVs S proteins, we isolated a panel of antibodies against the HCoV-229E S protein and characterized their epitopes and neutralizing potential. We found that the N-terminal domain of HCoV-229E S protein is antigenically dominant wherein an antigenic supersite is present and appears conserved in HCoV-NL63, which holds potential to serve as a pan-α-HCoVs epitope. In the receptor binding domain, a neutralizing epitope is captured in the end distal to the receptor binding site, reminiscent of the locations of the SARS-CoV-2 RBD cryptic epitopes. We also identified a neutralizing antibody that recognizes the connector domain, thus representing the first S2-directed neutralizing antibody against α-HCoVs. The unraveled HCoVs S proteins antigenic similarities and variances among genera highlight the challenges faced by pan-HCoV vaccine design while supporting the feasibility of broadly effective vaccine development against a subset of HCoVs.

Predicting unseen antibodies’ neutralizability via adaptive graph neural networks

The effects of novel antibodies are hard to predict owing to the complex interactions between antibodies and antigens. Zhang and colleagues use a graph-based method to learn a dynamic representation that allows for predictions of neutralization activity and demonstrate the method by recommending probable antibodies for human immunodeficiency virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, influenza and dengue. Most natural and synthetic antibodies are 'unseen'. That is, the demonstration of their neutralization effects with any antigen requires laborious and costly wet-lab experiments. The existing methods that learn antibody representations from known antibody-antigen interactions are unsuitable for unseen antibodies owing to the absence of interaction instances. The DeepAAI method proposed herein learns unseen antibody representations by constructing two adaptive relation graphs among antibodies and antigens and applying Laplacian smoothing between unseen and seen antibodies' representations. Rather than using static protein descriptors, DeepAAI learns representations and relation graphs 'dynamically', optimized towards the downstream tasks of neutralization prediction and 50% inhibition concentration estimation. The performance of DeepAAI is demonstrated on human immunodeficiency virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, influenza and dengue. Moreover, the relation graphs have rich interpretability. The antibody relation graph implies similarity in antibody neutralization reactions, and the antigen relation graph indicates the relation among a virus's different variants. We accordingly recommend probable broad-spectrum antibodies against new variants of these viruses.

A novel cyclic γ-AApeptide-based long-acting pan-coronavirus fusion inhibitor with potential oral bioavailability by targeting two sites in spike protein.

The receptor-binding domain (RBD) in S1 subunit and heptad repeat 1 (HR1) domain in S2 subunit of SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein are the targets of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) and pan-coronavirus (CoV) fusion inhibitory peptides, respectively. However, neither nAb- nor peptide-based drugs can be used orally. In this study, we screened a one-bead-two-compound (OBTC) cyclic γ-AApeptide library against SARS-CoV-2 S protein and identified a hit: S-20 with potent membrane fusion inhibitory activity, but moderate selectivity index (SI). After modification, one derivative, S-20-1, exhibited improved fusion inhibitory activity and SI (>1000). S-20-1 could effectively inhibit infection by pseudotyped and authentic SARS-CoV-2 and pseudotyped variants of concern (VOCs), including B.1.617.2 (Delta) and B.1.1.529 (Omicron), as well as MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, and HCoV-NL63. It could also inhibit infection of a pseudotyped SARS-related coronavirus WIV1 (SARSr-CoV-WIV1) from bats. Intranasal application of S-20-1 to mice before or after challenge with HCoV-OC43 or SARS-CoV-2 provided significant protection from infection. Importantly, S-20-1 was highly resistant to proteolytic degradation, had long half-life, and possessed favorable oral bioavailability. Mechanistic studies suggest that S-20-1 binds with high affinity to RBD in S1 and HR1 domain in S2 of SARS-CoV-2 S protein. Thus, with its pan-CoV fusion and entry inhibitory activity by targeting two sites in S protein, desirable half-life, and promising oral bioavailability, S-20-1 is a potential candidate for further development as a novel therapeutic and prophylactic drug against infection by SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, as well as future emerging and reemerging CoVs.

Origin, virological features, immune evasion and intervention of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages.

Recently, a large number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants continuously emerged and posed a major threat to global public health. Among them, particularly, Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), first identified in November 2021, carried numerous mutations in its spike protein (S), and then quickly spread around the world. Currently, Omicron variant has expanded into more than one hundred sublineages, such as BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5, which have already become the globally dominant variants. Different from other variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2, the Omicron variant and its sublineages exhibit increased transmissibility and immune escape from neutralizing antibodies generated through previous infection or vaccination, and have caused numerous re-infections and breakthrough infections. In this prospective, we have focused on the origin, virological features, immune evasion and intervention of Omicron sublineages, which will benefit the development of next-generation vaccines and therapeutics, including pan-sarbecovirus and universal anti-CoV therapeutics, to combat currently circulating and future emerging Omicron sublineages as well as other SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Neutralization mechanism of a human antibody with pan-coronavirus reactivity including SARS-CoV-2.

Frequent outbreaks of coronaviruses underscore the need for antivirals and vaccines that can counter a broad range of coronavirus types. We isolated a human antibody named 76E1 from a COVID-19 convalescent patient, and report that it has broad-range neutralizing activity against multiple α- and ß-coronaviruses, including the SARS-CoV-2 variants. 76E1 also binds its epitope in peptides from γ- and δ-coronaviruses. 76E1 cross-protects against SARS-CoV-2 and HCoV-OC43 infection in both prophylactic and therapeutic murine animal models. Structural and functional studies revealed that 76E1 targets a unique epitope within the spike protein that comprises the highly conserved S2' site and the fusion peptide. The epitope that 76E1 binds is partially buried in the structure of the SARS-CoV-2 spike trimer in the prefusion state, but is exposed when the spike protein binds to ACE2. This observation suggests that 76E1 binds to the epitope at an intermediate state of the spike trimer during the transition from the prefusion to the postfusion state, thereby blocking membrane fusion and viral entry. We hope that the identification of this crucial epitope, which can be recognized by 76E1, will guide epitope-based design of next-generation pan-coronavirus vaccines and antivirals.

Coronavirus Entry Inhibitors.

Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped RNA viruses that widely exist in the environment. Several CoVs possess a strong ability to infect humans, termed as human coronavirus (HCoVs). Among seven known HCoVs, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV belong to highly pathogenic HCoVs, which can cause severe clinical symptoms and even death. Especially, the current COVID-19 pandemic severely threatens human survival and health, which emphasizes the importance of developing effective CoV vaccines and anti-CoV agents to protect humans from HCoV infections. Coronavirus entry inhibitors can block various processes in viral entry, such as receptor binding, proteolytic activation of spike protein, or virus-cell membrane fusion. Coronavirus entry inhibitors, alone or in combination with other drugs, play important roles in the treatment of coronavirus diseases. Thus, we summarize and discuss the development of coronavirus entry inhibitors in this chapter.

A Modified Fibronectin Type III Domain-Conjugated, Long-Acting Pan-Coronavirus Fusion Inhibitor with Extended Half-Life.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by infection of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants has posed serious threats to global public health, thus calling for the development of potent and broad-spectrum antivirals. We previously designed and developed a peptide-based pan-coronavirus (CoV) fusion inhibitor, EK1, which is effective against all human CoVs (HCoV) tested by targeting the HCoV S protein HR1 domain. However, its relatively short half-life may limit its clinical use. Therefore, we designed, constructed, and expressed a recombinant protein, FL-EK1, which consists of a modified fibronectin type III domain (FN3) with albumin-binding capacity, a flexible linker, and EK1. As with EK1, we found that FL-EK1 could also effectively inhibit infection of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, as well as HCoV-OC43. Furthermore, it protected mice from infection by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and HCoV-OC43. Importantly, the half-life of FL-EK1 (30 h) is about 15.7-fold longer than that of EK1 (1.8 h). These results suggest that FL-EK1 is a promising candidate for the development of a pan-CoV fusion inhibitor-based long-acting antiviral drug for preventing and treating infection by current and future SARS-CoV-2 variants, as well as other HCoVs.

A Palmitic Acid-Conjugated, Peptide-Based pan-CoV Fusion Inhibitor Potently Inhibits Infection of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Other Variants of Concern.

Our previous studies have shown that cholesterol-conjugated, peptide-based pan-coronavirus (CoV) fusion inhibitors can potently inhibit human CoV infection. However, only palmitic acid (C16)-based lipopeptide drugs have been tested clinically, suggesting that the development of C16-based lipopeptide drugs is feasible. Here, we designed and synthesized a C16-modified pan-CoV fusion inhibitor, EK1-C16, and found that it potently inhibited infection by SARS-CoV-2 and its variants of concern (VOCs), including Omicron, and other human CoVs and bat SARS-related CoVs (SARSr-CoVs). These results suggest that EK1-C16 could be further developed for clinical use to prevent and treat infection by the currently circulating MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 and its VOCs, as well as any future emerging or re-emerging coronaviruses.

A non-ACE2 competing human single-domain antibody confers broad neutralization against SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has heavily burdened the global public health system and may keep simmering for years. The frequent emergence of immune escape variants have spurred the search for prophylactic vaccines and therapeutic antibodies that confer broad protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants. Here we show that the bivalency of an affinity maturated fully human single-domain antibody (n3113.1-Fc) exhibits exquisite neutralizing potency against SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus, and confers effective prophylactic and therapeutic protection against authentic SARS-CoV-2 in the host cell receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) humanized mice. The crystal structure of n3113 in complex with the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2, combined with the cryo-EM structures of n3113 and spike ecto-domain, reveals that n3113 binds to the side surface of up-state RBD with no competition with ACE2. The binding of n3113 to this novel epitope stabilizes spike in up-state conformations but inhibits SARS-CoV-2 S mediated membrane fusion, expanding our recognition of neutralization by antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Binding assay and pseudovirus neutralization assay show no evasion of recently prevalent SARS-CoV-2 lineages, including Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), and Delta (B.1.617.2) for n3113.1-Fc with Y58L mutation, demonstrating the potential of n3113.1-Fc (Y58L) as a promising candidate for clinical development to treat COVID-19.

25-Hydroxycholesterol-Conjugated EK1 Peptide with Potent and Broad-Spectrum Inhibitory Activity against SARS-CoV-2, Its Variants of Concern, and Other Human Coronaviruses.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection poses a serious threat to global public health and the economy. The enzymatic product of cholesterol 25-hydroxylase (CH25H), 25-Hydroxycholesterol (25-HC), was reported to have potent anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity. Here, we found that the combination of 25-HC with EK1 peptide, a pan-coronavirus (CoV) fusion inhibitor, showed a synergistic antiviral activity. We then used the method of 25-HC modification to design and synthesize a series of 25-HC-modified peptides and found that a 25-HC-modified EK1 peptide (EK1P4HC) was highly effective against infections caused by SARS-CoV-2, its variants of concern (VOCs), and other human CoVs, such as HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E. EK1P4HC could protect newborn mice from lethal HCoV-OC43 infection, suggesting that conjugation of 25-HC with a peptide-based viral inhibitor was a feasible and universal strategy to improve its antiviral activity.